Oscars betting odds

With the Golden Globes over and the 2019 Oscars nominations officially released, all that’s left between now and the 91st Academy Awards is tons of speculation, opinions and predictions about how the awards ceremony will play out. So, lets take a look at the updated 2019 Oscars betting odds.

The Golden Globes are the second-biggest awards ceremony. They also give some indication as to how voters are leaning in terms of who will win the prestigious awards. These awards include Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Director. Nevertheless, the Globes are not the end-all-be-all. There are some slight differentiation in the categories, and the Oscars 2019 nominations pools everything together. Therefore, the competition is a little more fierce.

With all that said, here’s a look at the post-Golden Globe Oscars betting odds.

What are the Oscars betting odds to win best picture?

Roma                              -190

The Green Book            +350

The Favourite               +1000

A Star Is Born              +1600

BlacKkKlansman         +1800

Bohemian Rhapsody   +1800

Black Panther               +1800

Vice                                  +6600

As far as the Oscars betting odds are concerned, this is a very diverse field. Also, it’s a perfect example of why we can’t rely too much on the Golden Globes. While the second-biggest favorite, The Green Book, won a Globe for Best Motion Picture in a Musical/Comedy, the movie that won for Best Motion Picture in a Drama was actually Bohemian Rhapsody. The current odds-on favorite, Alfonso Cuaron’s Roma, is the most cinematically breathtaking. Meanwhile, A Star is Born is a remake of a timeless classic. The Favourite has a deep and talented leading cast and Black Panther was certainly a cultural breakthrough, especially for a superhero movie.

The biggest question, however, is how voters will surround the multiple controversies that has followed The Green Book. These range from the leading character, the real-life Don Shirley, not being consulted to troubling revelations about a screenwriter and the director. Nonetheless, that didn’t stop the movie from consequently garnering five Oscars nominations. And seeing that the film took home a Golden Globe, as well as Best Picture at the Producers Guild Awards (which has also been the Oscars Best Picture winner 21 out of 29 years), I’m still putting my money on them to probably take home the honor.

What are the Oscars betting odds for Best Actor?

Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)   -300

Christian Bale (Vice)                           +200

Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)        +1400

Viggo Mortensen (The Green Book) +2500

Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)      +5000

This field carries, some big-time names. But the biggest surprise was Dafoe, who seemingly out of nowhere earned his first Best Actor nomination (after three previous nominations as Best Supporting Actor) for his depiction of Vincent Van Gogh in At Eternity’s Gate. While he was nominated at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards, there wasn’t much buzz surrounding Dafoe. Therefore, I’m surprised the odds aren’t even bigger for Dafoe.

For the rest of the field, there is certainly no lack of talent. First of all, Bale’s portrayal of former Vice President Dick Cheney in the biography/comedy Vice was a perfect display of Bale’s method acting. It also gave him the Golden Globe award for Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy. Similarly, Bradley Cooper’s role as Jackson Maine in A Star is Born was great, and he showed a true connection with Lady Gaga. Mortensen, who received his third Best Actor nomination, did a phenomenal job in playing a mouthy, Italian-American nightclub bouncer (while not being too overzealous or cheesy). But for me, the intrigue goes to Rami Malek. He is on a roll, moving into the favourite position after winning at the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild Awards.

Having not played many notable major roles prior to Bohemian Rhapsody, Malek took on the persona of Queen frontman Freddie Mercury, and he crushed it. Furthermore, Queen lead guitarist Brian May went on record as saying that Malek was so convincing and authentic at times, ‘we sometimes forgot it was Rami.’ The extent to which he trained for the role, and how he delivered, but also gets my nod for the Oscars.

What are the Oscars betting odds for Best Actress?

Glenn Close (The Wife)                                              -500

Olivia Coleman (The Favourite)                                 +400

Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)                                        +800

Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)                                              +3300

Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)       +3300

Certainly, it would be easy to tap the multi-talented Lady Gaga for this award (and her 1 in 100 people speech). However, this field features some deeply talented roles. Aparicio, for her work as a 1970s domestic worker in Mexico City, has already been a revelation, as she is the first indigenous woman in the 91-year history of the Oscars to be nominated for a Best Actress award. Close, the Golden Globe winner for Best Actress in a Drama, leads the field with her role as Joan, who as a ghostwriter for her husband led to him receiving a Nobel Prize for literature, while destroying their marriage over the years.

The other Golden Globe winner, for Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy, was Olivia Coleman, whose portrayal as Queen Anne depicts the struggles of frailty, weakness and, ultimately, the desperation to avoid loneliness. Similarly, there is one other role that also plays upon the topic of loneliness, and that is probably Melissa McCarthy’s work as Lee Israel, based on her 2008 memoir. Interestingly, this is a stark contrast to the McCarthy we usually see – goofy, humorous and easy going. She plays an isolated, clever woman, who is anti-social and at times near-hopeless. Furthermore, it’s not the glitziest role, nor the most raved-about movie. But for McCarthy to step outside of her comfort zone, and deliver a performance that we probably didn’t expect, I’m going to step out on a limb and go with the biggest longshot.

What are the Oscars betting odds for Best Director?

Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)                      -2000

Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)            +550

Adam McKay (Vice)                            +3300

Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)       +2500

Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)  +3300

With no disrespect to McKay, Lanthimos and Pawlikowski (who is just the third Polish director ever to be nominated), this year’s Best Director field seems like a two-horse race. Furthermore, even including Spike Lee could be a stretch.

This is a breakthrough for Lee, the long-time film director who finally earns his first Best Director nomination for the funny-yet-brazen portrayal of the KKK, and to some degree the current status of the Donald Trump administration and his supporters. It would be a feel-good story for Lee to win. His impressive career would finally has that signature hallmark movie (as BlacKkKlansman also is his first directed movie to be nominated for Best Picture). But it is hard to envision anyone winning this aside from Alfonso Cuaron.

First of all, his work on Roma, the second Spanish-language film ever to be nominated for directing, was certainly nothing short of breathtaking. It is due to his sharp omission of color from the film and usage of the Alexa65 digital camera. What also is of importance with this field, and likely victory for Cuaron, is that two of the five films in this category were foreign-language (Roma and Cold War), and Roma was distributed through the streaming giant Netflix, marking their first foray into receiving Oscar nominations.

Hence, Cuaron is the heavy favorite to win this award. With Roma nominated for other high-profile awards as well, its success could probably speak volumes towards the future of Netflix’s power in garnering high-profile films as a result.

What are the Oscars betting odds for other key categories at the celebrated movie awards ceremony?

Best Animated Feature

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse     -1000

Isle of Dogs                                         +800

Incredibles 2                                       +900

Mirai                                                    +2500

Ralph Breaks the Internet                   +2500

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali (Green Book)                                     -600

Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)         +450

Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)                                        +1000

Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)                                +2500

Sam Rockwell (Vice)                                                  +3000

Best Supporting Actress

Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)       -280

Amy Adams (Vice)                                         +220

Emma Stone (The Favourite)                         +1500

Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)                        +1500

Marina de Tavira (Roma)                                +3000

Best Original Song

“Shallow” (A Star Is Born)                                                                                          -2000

“All The Stars” (Black Panther)                                                                                  +650

“I’ll Fight” (RBG)                                                                                                          +2000

“The Place Where Lost Things Go” (Mary Poppins Returns)                                   +2000

“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)     +4000

Best Foreign Language Film

Roma (Mexico)                                   -1500

Cold War (Poland)                              +700

Shoplifters (Japan)                             +1200

Capernaum (Lebanon)                        +2500

Never Look Away (Germany)            +3300

Best Original Screenplay

The Favourite              -110

Green Book                +275

Roma                          +400

First Reformed            +500

Vice                             +2000